Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
